Since we released our second 2025 bulletin, last December, the world has gotten worse. What happened in Venezuela on January 3, with the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US military forces in Caracas and his imprisonment on US territory, has radically altered the world order, with effects far beyond Latin America.
SPW considers it essential to produce a reinterpretation of the bulletin. This worsening of the state of the world is no surprise. In recent years, our bulletins and products have mapped and analytically described the deterioration of democratic conditions. The assault on Venezuela was preceded by months of war campaigning by the Trump administration in the Caribbean and the region, with the bombing of boats suspected of drug trafficking and the murder of crew members, and the deployment of large contingents of troops and naval and air fleets.
Even so, the boldness and brutality of the action in Caracas is perplexing due to its flagrant violation of international rules. As we have seen since January 3, Maduro’s capture has set in motion a dynamic of rapid change in global geopolitics, with the threat of taking over territories elsewhere, as in the case of Greenland. And, no less importantly, we have also witnessed the increasingly accelerated rotation of Trump’s repressive machine within the US itself, particularly targeting immigration. A scenario of dizzying deterioration in the short period of one year since the beginning of Trump’s second term.
To facilitate the visualization and understanding of what is happening, we have produced this extensive compilation. And we emphasize that it is our sight, as soon as possible, an assessment of the developments of the intervention in Venezuela on January 3 and its impacts on gender and sexuality politics.
Venezuela
The invasion
Phillips O’Brien on Venezuela and More – Paul Krugman – Substack
The Venezuela Invasion Is the Apex of Trumpian Foreign Policy – New Republic
Russia’s Fearsome Arsenal Fizzled in Venezuela. Here’s Why. – NY Times
Inside the frantic global race to find an escape route for Maduro – Washington Post
The 3 Keys to Understanding Trump’s Retro Coup in Venezuela- Wired
Trump Wants Stephen Miller to Have a Terrifying New Role in Venezuela – New Republic
J. D. Vance’s Notable Absence on Venezuela – New Yorker
Spanish and Portuguese
Celso de Mello explica a ilegalidade do sequestro de Maduro – ICL
E daí que a ação dos EUA na Venezuela é ilegal? – Folha de São Paulo
Por que o temível arsenal russo da Venezuela fracassou durante ataque dos EUA – Folha de São Paulo
The invasion
How Venezuela’s New Leader Went From Revolutionary to Trump’s Orbit – NY Times
Venezuela’s New Leader Is the Oil Industry’s Long-Time Ally – Bloomberg
The Lights Are Still On in Venezuela – New Yorker
The Overlooked Deaths of the Attack on Venezuela – New Yorker
Splits Emerge Among Venezuelans as Revolutionary Dream Fades – NY Times
The Two Faces of Venezuela’s Regime Smile at the U.S. and Glower at Home – WSJ
Spanish and Portuguese
¿Por qué los venezolanos no pudimos? – Le Monde Diplomatique
Venezuela: No ser tontos útiles de las oligarquías (de izquierda) – Rafael Categui
El cambio de régimen perfecto – Nuso
Venezuela: la hora de la perplejidad – Nuso
Venezuela después de la invasión – El Faro
La incierta transición en Venezuela – El País
Cayó Maduro, pero la democracia aún no llegará a Venezuela – El País
“Entraron los gringos!” – Piauí
Los tecnócratas chavistas del entorno de Delcy Rodríguez en la Venezuela pos Maduro – El País
Vértigo en la ‘nueva Venezuela’ de Delcy Rodríguez – El País
Los Rodríguez al poder | #LaConversaARI
El Ejército, una empresa en riesgo en la futura Venezuela – El País
Desertores das Forças Armadas no exílio pedem novo comando militar na Venezuela – Folha de São Paulo
La semana que las celdas se entreabrieron en Venezuela – El País
Venezuela diz que já libertou 400 presos; oposição e ONGs contestam – Agência Brasil
Latin America
Regime Change in America’s Back Yard – New Yorker
U.S. Blows Up China’s Latin America Ambitions With Maduro Ouster – WSJ
Podcast: Trump’s Invasion of Venezuela Polarizes Central America – El Faro
Trump’s Predatory Danger to Latin America – The Nation
Trump urges Cuba to cut deal with US ‘before it’s too late’ – France 24
Spanish and Portuguese
A Venezuela é só o começo – Piauí
O pequeno Marco Rubio de Trump tem um grande plano: entregar Cuba para Miami – Agência Pública
¿Qué puede pasar en Venezuela? – Le Monde Diplomatique
Donald Trump, nuestro nuevo vecino latinoamericano – El País
América Latina en el juego de las potencias – Nuso
Trump hace temblar la política de América Latina – NY Times
Marco Rubio, el ejecutor de la doctrina Monroe – Página 12
Nicaragua
Presos políticos excarcelados en Nicaragua viven bajo una libertad condicionada – Divergentes
Colombia
Colombia’s President Feared a U.S. Attack. Then Trump Called. – NY Times
How Colombia’s President Reached an Uneasy Détente with Donald Trump – New Yorker
Trump’s other Latin American feud: why Colombia’s Petro is not Maduro – The Guardian
Cuba
El estrangulamiento de Cuba – El País
La Habana, bajo la mira de Washington: ¿qué piensan los ciudadanos de a pie? – France 24
O pequeno Marco Rubio de Trump tem um grande plano: entregar Cuba para Miami – Agência Pública
Trump ameaça Cuba: ‘Faça um acordo antes que seja tarde demais’ – ICL
Further in depth news and analysis, see Giro Latino.
Brazil and local effects
Brasil prevê ‘jogo pesado’ da extrema direita dos EUA para impedir reeleição de Lula – ICL
Lula rebate Trump em artigo publicado no NYT: ‘Este hemisfério pertence a todos nós’ – Carta Capital
A nova dor de cabeça de Joesley Batista com a queda de Maduro na Venezuela – O Globo
Lula intensifica la diplomacia ante un Trump que impone la ley del más fuerte – El País
Lula: This Hemisphere Belongs to All of Us – NY times
Global scene and fallout
America’s New Age of Empire – Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project Syndicate
Trump’s Hobbesian World Order – Project Syndicate
The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Makes No Sense – Foreign Policy
Venezuela and the mutation of American imperialism – NewStatesman
The age of invasion – NewStatesman
Trump’s Retro Imperialism – The Atlantic
Trump’s New Old World Order – Project Syndicate
The return of the US’s predatory imperialism – Le Monde
Trump’s Robber-Baron Imperialism – Project Syndicate
A Sobering New Year for Russia’s Propagandists – Cepa
A High-Seas Gambit Humiliates Putin – The Atlantic
An Emboldened Trump Places His Bets From Caracas to Tehran – NY Times
Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality’ – NY Times
How Marco Rubio Went from “Little Marco” to Trump’s Foreign-Policy Enabler – New Yorker
Is This MAGA Foreign Policy or Something Else Entirely? – NY Times
J. D. Vance’s Notable Absence on Venezuela – New Yorker
US VP says Venezuela can only sell oil if it serves US interests – Reuters
Immediate effects beyond Latin America
After Venezuela, the Unthinkable Enters Canadian Politics – The Walrus
What Trump Did to Venezuela Should Terrify Ottawa – The Walrus
The Oligarchs Pushing for Conquest in Greenland – New Republic
Why does Trump want Greenland and what could it mean for Nato? – BBC
Spanish and Portuguese
Stephen Miller, la voz más radical cerca de Trump – El País
Dinamarca se prepara para lo impensable: una ‘Venezuela’ en Groenlandia – El País
La falacia autoritaria y reaccionaria de un mundo multipolar de Aleksandr Dugin – Divergentes
Brasil rejeita protetorado na Venezuela e divisão do mundo em esferas de influência – ICL
One year of Trump’s second term
One Year of Trump. The Time to Act Is Now, While We Still Can. – NY Times
One year into Trump’s second term and the world faces ‘a human rights emergency’: New Report – Amnesty International
Sliding Towards Authoritarianism – HRW
A year into his return, Trump wields executive power with few restraints – Reuters
Spanish and Portuguese
El año en el que el mundo se asomó al abismo autoritario de Donald Trump – El País
Atrapados en la era Trump – El País
La gran persecución: el año en el que Trump concibió un Estados Unidos sin migrante – El País
Podcast discute personalismo e impulso totalitário no primeiro ano de Trump 2.0 – Folha de São Paulo
365 dias de destruição – Observatório do Clima
Inside the US
The Mad King’s Madness Deepens – Paul Krugman – Substack
The Minnesota War Zone Is Trump’s Most Trumpian Accomplishment – New Yorker
Kristi Noem says that virtually anyone could face a Kavanaugh stop – Law Dork
ICE’s New-Age Propaganda – New Yorker
How Donald Trump Has Transformed ICE – New Yorker
Under Trump, a Shift Toward ‘Absolute Immunity’ for ICE – NY Times
Why ICE Can Kill With Impunity – Wired
ICE’s Violence Is “By Design” Under Trump – Mother Jones
ICE violence against women is increasingly visible — and largely untracked – 19th News
The Trump administration can’t stop winking at white nationalists – Vox
Trump Doesn’t Need the Proud Boys Anymore – Wired
Trump threatens to use the Insurrection Act to end protests in Minneapolis – AP
Trump’s Threat to Invoke the Insurrection Act, Explained – American Civil Liberties Union
Kristi Noem plans to ‘recruit Fox News fans’ for ICE amid President Trump’s deportation agenda – MSN
The Ugly Beast of American Authoritarianism – The Nation
Trump’s Venezuela Move Could Deliver a Big Win for This MAGA Billionaire – Mother Jones
Branding Trump a neocon does a disservice to the label – Washington Post
Spanish and Portuguese
Trump ameaça intervenção militar em Minnesota – ICL
A obscura lei que Trump ameaça usar contra manifestantes nos EUA – BBC
Uso do ICE e ação na Venezuela reforçam fascismo de Trump, diz historiador – Consultor Jurídico
Conheça o ICE: polícia migratória de Trump alvo de protestos nos EUA – Agência Brasil
Como os agentes do ICE são recrutados pelo governo Trump? – DW
Polícia de imigração de Trump recruta supremacistas brancos para acelerar deportação – ICL
In depth analysis
America’s New Age of Empire – Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project Syndicate
Spanish and Portuguese
Con Trump en Venezuela, la extrema derecha rehace el orden mundial a su imagen – Folha de São Paulo
Venezuela: No ser tontos útiles de las oligarquías (de izquierda) – Rafael Categui